经济学家：中国汽车行业崛起
不久之前，中国制造的汽车还常被视为设计拙劣、做工粗糙。但政府补贴、中国在稀土领域的主导地位，以及其广为人知的敏捷生产流程，把中国的电动车产业推成了全球最大。如今，中国电动车做工扎实、技术出众，而且——便宜。
但前路也有阻碍。在国内，一场价格战正愈演愈烈，上百家车企中鲜有盈利者。与此同时，海外各国政府对中国竞争心存戒备。
本期节目中，《经济学人》的中国记者吴莎拉（Sarah Wu）与产业编辑西蒙·赖特（Simon Wright）将探讨中国电动车如何崛起，并思考有哪些因素可能会给其全球化进程踩下刹车。
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致谢补充：片段为埃隆·马斯克2011年接受彭博采访时的讲话。
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Sarah Wu [00:00:16]
13年前，当被问到比亚迪的电动车时，埃隆·马斯克笑了。
采访者 [00:00:22]
告诉我你为何发笑。你完全不把他们当竞争对手吗？
Elon Musk [00:00:27]
不。
采访者 [00:00:27]
为什么？他们的价格更低啊。
Elon Musk [00:00:30]
我不认为他们的产品很好。
Sarah Wu [00:00:33]
但最后笑到最后的是比亚迪。2023年最后一季度，这家中国车企的电动车销量超过了特斯拉，成为全球最大的制造商。如今，从伦敦到利马，处处可见中国电动车的身影。但名声越大，审视也越严。在国内，价格战持续，鲜有车企盈利，这促使政策制定者近来更加急迫地出手。与此同时，海外各国正在为中国电动车设置路障。我是《经济学人》的中国记者吴莎拉，今天和我一起的是我们的产业编辑西蒙·赖特。我们将讨论中国电动车的“连番崛起”，并追问：是什么可能给它们的全球成功踩下刹车？这里是《鼓楼》（Drum Tower）。《经济学人》。嗨，西蒙！很高兴见到你！欢迎做客《鼓楼》！
Simon Wright [00:01:44]
很高兴来这儿，谢谢。
Sarah Wu [00:01:45]
我特别期待你来，因为我刚开始跑中国汽车行业时读了你的特别报道，收获良多。
Simon Wright [00:01:58]
那份报告里关于中国车企的篇幅只有一小部分。如果现在让我写，我想几乎整份都会讲中国车企——变化之快实在惊人。
Sarah Wu [00:02:08]
也许你该写下一份专门关于中国车企的特别报道了。
Simon Wright [00:02:14]
等人来邀我。
Sarah Wu [00:02:15]
就当我现在在邀你了。既然你长期报道汽车业，也去过无数车展。每年上海或北京都有大型车展。今年的上海车展你感觉如何？
Simon Wright [00:02:32]
“巨大”这个词再合适不过。我从未见过这种规模，甚至包括曾经被视为巨型车展典范的法兰克福车展。最大的不同在于，中国车展仍然令人兴奋、活力满满，而西方的车展基本在走下坡。这几乎可以作为我们接下来讨论的一个隐喻。
Sarah Wu [00:02:55]
确实如此。
Simon Wright [00:02:56]
莎拉，我知道你在北京，长期报道中国的电动车行业。我很好奇，现在北京的用车情况如何？大家都开电动车了吗？
Sarah Wu [00:03:09]
还没到“人人都是”，但已经很多了，你在路上很容易辨认——电动车号牌是绿色的。有人跟我说，现在北京街道更安静了，因为电动车更多。北京在中国北方，而南方的电动车更多，因为气温更高，里程焦虑更小。很多网约车司机开比亚迪。更富裕的消费者可能会选蔚来、小鹏、理想。
Simon Wright [00:03:38]
主要是中国品牌吗？西方车企的电动车有进入吗？
Sarah Wu [00:03:46]
这里以中国品牌为主。过去，尤其老一辈觉得“BBA”（奔驰、宝马、奥迪）是最佳选择，这种观念至今还在。但年轻人品牌忠诚度更低，更愿意接受本土品牌。他们把车当成科技产品，追新功能新体验。所以这里确实出现了代际转变。
Simon Wright [00:04:17]
不仅如此，整个行业都发生了巨变。中国车企崛起之快令人咋舌。哪怕10年前，人们还在嘲笑中国车——做工糟、设计差、没人想要。短时间内它们发生了翻天覆地的变化。
Sarah Wu [00:04:36]
我采访过一位长期观察者——位于上海的分析师张瑶（Yale Zhang），自1999年起就关注汽车行业，他见证了这些变化。
Yale Zhang [00:04:50]
实际上，中国这二十多年的发展，几乎浓缩了美国或欧洲近百年的历程。中国一年的变化，可能相当于西方国家五年的变化。
Sarah Wu [00:05:08]
他的意思是，中国在过去二十五六年的发展速度惊人：一年的变化相当于西方近五年的步幅。他还见证了乘用车年销量从他入行时的50万，二十年后跃升至超过2000万，使中国成为全球最大的汽车市场。
Simon Wright [00:05:43]
中国不仅是最大市场，还是最大的汽车制造国，我想现在也是最大的汽车出口国。非同寻常。没有政府政策，这一切不可能发生。多年前中国政府就押注行业未来在电动车，并提供了相应支持与政策推动。
Sarah Wu [00:06:04]
回到上世纪90年代，那是中国改革开放十年后，中国想打造自己的汽车产业，于是以合资（JV）形式引入外资车企。
Simon Wright [00:06:21]
政府之所以坚持当时多为国企的中国车厂与外企合资，是为了向其学习。但现实是，合资反而拖了中国车企的后腿。合资利润极高，中国车厂管理者“躺赚”，并未真正发展自家能力。
Sarah Wu [00:06:44]
于是中国意识到，如果拼不过传统车企，就要“换道超车”——改走电动化赛道。他们下手很早：2001年就把电动车写进五年规划。但真正大力推进是在2000年代末，前奥迪工程师万钢出任科技部长后，开始大规模补贴、加快推动。
Simon Wright [00:07:23]
必须看到，这对政府而言也算是一场赌注。当时并无迹象显示电动车会像今天这样占据主导。
Sarah Wu [00:07:33]
行业里当年很多人也想象不到。我记得奇瑞董事长去年在两会上回忆，1997年企业成立时，国内被外资品牌统治，自主造车像是白日梦。再说政府作为……2009年起，城市推广电动公共交通，2013年扩大到个人消费，国家和地方都有购车补贴。
Simon Wright [00:08:21]
不要低估补贴的重要性，无论是生产端还是销售端。战略与国际问题研究中心（CSIS）估算，2009—2023年间，中国在发展电动车产业上花了2310亿元（人民币），这很可能还是低估。
Sarah Wu [00:08:40]
这是一笔巨款。地方政府也提供了关键支持，比如供地、建厂。
Simon Wright [00:08:47]
问题也在这儿。外界估算中国有至少一百个品牌。我去上海车展时看到许多从未听过的品牌，可能再也不会见到。很多甚至懒得把名字做成西文，显示他们对出口毫无兴趣。这背后是冗杂的“品牌腹地”。
Sarah Wu [00:09:18]
我还真没注意过哪些有英文名。但你抓到了核心：不愿让弱者退出，扭曲了市场，我认为这是当下汽车业最大的难题之一。
Simon Wright [00:09:34]
同时也别低估特斯拉的作用。无论你如何看待马斯克，他既在西方开启了电动车量产，也启发了中国车企。就地方层面看，上海允许特斯拉设厂（超级工厂）功不可没。
Sarah Wu [00:09:54]
没错。上海超级工厂被视为样板，带动各地政府争抢电动车项目、培育本地品牌。特斯拉形成了“鲶鱼效应”：一条鲶鱼能激得其他鱼游得更快。中国让特斯拉进来，迫使本土品牌更努力地设计、提升，也强化了供应链。我和张瑶聊到中国供应链的重要性时，他也提到了这一点。
Sarah Wu [00:10:55]
他谈的是：在上海周边几百公里的范围内，几乎所有电动车相关零部件都能找到，足以整车装配。
Simon Wright [00:11:05]
某种意义上，政府的“保护”也起了作用。2015年起白名单政策偏向本土电池企业，CATL、比亚迪崛起，LG、三星等外企被挤出。另一方面，中国还早早布局关键矿物：电池需要的锂、钴、镍，以及电机所需的稀土。政府在全球多国，尤其非洲，签下协议，远早于西方车企和矿企意识到其重要性，等于“卡位”了，尤其在稀土上。
Sarah Wu [00:12:00]
我在江西赣州时对此感受很深。那是稀土大产地，也有大量稀土磁体厂。我走在一条很安静的街上，一边是全球顶级稀土磁体企业总部，旁边就是比亚迪和其他中国电动车品牌的4S店。这让我意识到：中国电动车厂商几乎可以保证拿到关键部件，而此时西方车企还在“全面恐慌”中。
Simon Wright [00:12:40]
矿物与稀土确实关键。但还有一点：中国车企的运转方式，尤其你提到的蔚来、理想等新势力，与传统外企完全不同。他们不仅仅是“更拼”，心态与流程也迥异。
Sarah Wu [00:13:08]
对，他们重塑了流程。比如西方车企会按A→B→C的顺序，而中国公司可能并行推进ABC以节省时间。再加上工作时长更长、决策更灵活。业内高管都说，他们能比老牌车企更快拍板，少很多层级官僚手续。
Simon Wright [00:13:42]
消费者的期待也在推动。中国买车人希望车与数字生活无缝连接，也渴望更快见到新车型。中国新车买家的平均年龄约35岁，欧洲大概是55岁。当然原因不止这些。
Sarah Wu [00:14:09]
除了更年轻，中国消费者也更“急”，想更快见到更新的车型。但不止这些，张瑶还有些有意思的看法。
Sarah Wu [00:14:43]
他认为中国消费者收入并不高，也缺少成熟市场那样的历史品牌忠诚，这导致竞争极其激烈。所有决策都要更快，否则就会被对手超越，或被消费者遗忘。
Simon Wright [00:15:07]
车企要领先，离不开强大的车载科技与娱乐软件。这将成为未来差异化的关键。在中国，这点尤为明显。据说不少人回到家会先在车里待半小时看电影、听音乐，因为车里的娱乐系统比家里还好。
Sarah Wu [00:15:50]
难怪大家迷上这些功能。我表亲很喜欢和蔚来的“NOMI”对话，名字来自“糯米”，很好用。很多车内语音助手都很强，你可以一次性让它做十件事，它会依次完成。
Simon Wright [00:16:11]
语音确实是中国更领先的领域之一。也因此，接下来就说说中国车企“出海”了，尤其是想复制比亚迪的成功，扩大出口。
Sarah Wu [00:16:40]
我们的制作人陈婕昊最近去度假，依然给我发来语音，说在亚美尼亚街头随处可见中国电动车。
Jiehao Chen [00:16:54]
嗨莎拉，我在亚美尼亚旅行，完全没想到中国电动车这么常见。有红旗、比亚迪、极氪。刚才我打车坐的就是比亚迪宋PLUS。我和司机Hayek聊天，他觉得这些车性价比更高，和特斯拉相比也是。虽然从2023年才出现，但已经站稳了脚跟，中国电动车在当地进口和购买的份额很大。
Simon Wright [00:17:41]
这段语音很有意思——顺便说，我之前还真没把亚美尼亚当度假首选。
Sarah Wu [00:17:48]
我也一样。
Simon Wright [00:17:49]
正如我们说的，中国车企已在本土取胜。下一步就是成为全球车企，而路径就是出口。很短时间里，中国成了全球最大汽车出口国，不仅出口电动车，也向尚未准备好大规模电动化的地区出口燃油车，以便日后再输出电动车。中国电动车在亚美尼亚等地受欢迎，是因为它们做工好、价格低、技术强。
Sarah Wu [00:18:27]
不过像Hayek这样的人在美国买不到中国电动车，因为100%的关税几乎等同于禁令。所以他们盯上的最大市场是欧洲。
Simon Wright [00:18:41]
没错，而且这100%关税还是拜登加的，不是特朗普。中国电动车短期内基本进不了美国。于是欧洲——全球最大、竞争最激烈的车市——成了中国电动车的“试金石”。你走在伦敦梅费尔这样高端地段，会看到劳斯莱斯、法拉利、兰博基尼的展厅，接着就能看到中国比亚迪的展厅。
Sarah Wu [00:19:17]
我很喜欢这个画面：劳斯莱斯、法拉利，然后是比亚迪。
Simon Wright [00:19:21]
是啊，而中国电动车进入欧洲也才不久。第一款是2019年的爱驰（Aiways），售价约4万欧元。
Sarah Wu [00:19:30]
放在今天看，4万欧元可不便宜。现在最受欢迎的品牌是哪个？
Simon Wright [00:19:38]
如果你想买最贵的电动车，前面提过劳斯莱斯的Spectre，我有幸试驾过，价格大概35万英镑。
Sarah Wu [00:19:48]
哎哟。
Simon Wright [00:19:50]
如果买不起，在英国最受欢迎的是MG（名爵），由上汽生产。还有欧拉（后来把“好猫”的英文名改了，因为“Funky Cat”卖不动）。总之，各种中国电动车开始出现在英国和欧洲各地。
Sarah Wu [00:20:18]
欧洲消费者购买中国电动车的动力是什么？
Simon Wright [00:20:22]
实惠是关键。中国车瞄准的是大众市场。在这个细分里，品牌忠诚度远低于奔驰、宝马、保时捷的用户。大众市场更看“钱包”，而中国电动车价格低、做工好、造型不错、科技满满。为何不买呢？
Sarah Wu [00:20:51]
但对政府而言可没那么美好。很多欧洲政府担心廉价中国电动车“涌入”，因此对中国电动车发起反补贴调查并加征关税。这件事曾是去年中欧关系最大的刺儿。今年我感觉风声稍弱，一方面车企显示能消化额外关税，另一方面政府更关注稀土等出口管制。
Simon Wright [00:21:29]
完全同意。欧洲各国对其汽车产业保护有加，就像中国地方政府把车企当“工业名片”。欧洲仍有车企的国家一样担心廉价进口冲击，因为他们暂时无法像中国那样低成本生产电动车——前面说过的供应链与电池优势。欧洲车企在努力追赶，在中国本土也与中企合作，例如大众与小鹏在软件方面的协作；在欧洲，Stellantis牵手零跑生产小型廉价电动车。可以说，欧洲赛点已开。比亚迪在匈牙利建厂，预计今年或明年投产；还计划在土耳其（欧盟关税区边缘）建厂。其他中企也在考虑欧洲本地化生产。
Sarah Wu [00:22:39]
你觉得中国车企会出现在法国、德国这样“本土大本营”里吗？
Simon Wright [00:22:45]
并非不可能。随着欧洲车企收缩产能，或许会出现空置工厂，中国车企很可能把它们视为上佳据点。我一点也不排除。
Sarah Wu [00:23:03]
那可能会是“双赢”：闲置工厂被盘活，中国企业带来投资与就业、生产更便宜的电动车。
Simon Wright [00:23:12]
但也是把双刃剑：一方面有就业与投资，另一方面对本土车企又添竞争。
Sarah Wu [00:23:23]
说到竞争，我们再回到中国。这里竞争极其残酷。可以说，中国电动车故事的光环正在暗淡。海外担心“过剩产能”外溢，国内近来高频谈“内卷”，即无效竞争，并希望更快出手整治。连最高领导人习近平最近都问：算力、AI、新能源车，难道全国每个省都要上这些产业？这番直白是官方一系列批评的最新一则，指向地方“层层上马”、不让弱者出局。中央也在缓解全产业链的痛点，比如要求按时向供应商付款、鼓励并购整合。
Simon Wright [00:24:43]
中国的过剩产能确实严重。汽车行业通常都有些过剩，但在中国尤其夸张——有估计称产能是实际产量的两倍。这极端低效，再叠加价格战，利润被碾压。你提到的整合，我报道中国车企以来一直听说政府鼓励整合，但我觉得极难。比起并购重组，更可能的应是“出清”——企业倒闭退出。但只要地方政府愿意掏钱养着这些千篇一律的SUV小厂，这一幕就难发生。所以我暂时看不到解法。
Sarah Wu [00:25:37]
确实两难：这是中国最大的成功故事之一，同时又是供应链上许多企业的“痛点源”。价格战之害不只在汽车，全社会都在“卷”。在经济放缓、内需疲弱的大背景下，叠加价格战，去年三季度近四分之一的中国上市公司亏损，是五年前比例的两倍多。如果企业无法盈利，岗位会受威胁，员工收入也会受挤压，这都不利于政府提振内需的目标。
Simon Wright [00:26:26]
同意。
Sarah Wu [00:26:27]
张瑶认为，另一个问题在于这些电动车公司的运营方式。
Sarah Wu [00:26:52]
大多数新势力模仿特斯拉早期路径。特斯拉十年亏损，11年后才盈利，押注“远期回报”。中国新势力也想复制：烧钱驱逐对手，留到最后的少数吃红利。但在造车这门生意里，这条路远没有想的那样可行。许多新势力正步入艰难时刻，明年可能会有不少倒下。
Simon Wright [00:27:27]
行业出清不可避免。即便像比亚迪这样强劲的企业，政府也在密切关注。它现在也被传有高库存、减产，供应商抱怨付款条款苛刻——比亚迪“有议价权”。
Sarah Wu [00:27:49]
是的。比亚迪5月的新一轮降价，引发我见过最强烈的官方与官媒反应。新华社说价格战“没有赢家，更没有未来”；工信部表态要遏制恶性竞争；《人民日报》警告“低价低质”会伤害“中国产”名声。比亚迪股价下跌，行业仿佛站在十字路口。我们聊了中国电动车的崛起、它们进军欧洲的雄心，以及内外的阻碍。若要你对中国电动车的全球未来做些预测，会怎么说？
Simon Wright [00:28:46]
欧洲车企确实担忧，理所当然。但关税确实放慢了中国车在欧洲的进度，给了欧洲人喘息时间。他们也在推出更好的新电动车，竞争力会提升，部分因为他们向中企学习了软件与速度的重要性。更有意思的是美国——如果有中国车企想在美国买一座闲置工厂开工，这会成为中美关系的有趣测试。
Sarah Wu [00:29:21]
我和你一样好奇中国车企能否进入美国。考虑到当初仅仅是宁德时代想“技术授权”就引发两党担忧，更别说造车了。我看短期内不太可能，但如果是特朗普上台，一切皆有可能。
Simon Wright [00:29:41]
此外，中国车企也在南美、非洲、中东做大生意。这些地方传统上是欧洲车企的强势地带。面向全球布局的趋势非常明确。中国国内将经历一轮洗牌，但强者会存活下来。就像当年的日本、韩国一样，中国无疑已成为全球汽车产业的重要力量。
Sarah Wu [00:30:04]
这件事的走向也会深刻影响中国的产业政策。尽管“政府不擅长选赢家”这句话常被提起，但电动车案例显示，砸下重金能催生一些超级明星。不过，随着中国发力低空经济、AI等新产业，已经能看到国家试图避免再次走上“产能过剩”的老路。西蒙，感谢你做客《鼓楼》。
Simon Wright [00:30:38]
非常感谢邀请。
Sarah Wu [00:30:41]
感谢收听《鼓楼》。特别感谢在骑行和做饭时收听我们的Alex，以及来自旧金山的听众Mitch。我们很喜欢收到大家的来信，请继续发送到 drum@economist.com。
既然你听到这里，说明你是订阅用户，可以收听我们所有播客。最新一期《Money Talks》（财经与经济）探讨了特朗普关税对东南亚的影响，我觉得非常有意思。本期制作人：Alicia Burrell、Lucy Rohr、陈婕昊。编辑：Rosie Gillott。执行制片：Chris Impey。声音设计：Amelia Tsai。《鼓楼》的配乐由Jocelyn Tan作曲。
Not so long ago Chinese-made cars were considered badly designed and poorly made. But government subsidies, China’s rare-earth dominance and its famously nimble production processes have turned the country’s ev industry into the world’s largest. Nowadays Chinese evs are well-made, chock full of great technology…and cheap.
But there are roadblocks. At home, a price war rages and few of the country’s hundred or so manufacturers turn a profit. Meanwhile governments abroad are weary of Chinese competition.
Sarah Wu, The Economist’s China correspondent, and Simon Wright, our industry editor, explore the rise of Chinese evs and ask what could put the brakes on their global success.
Transcripts of our podcasts are available via economist.com/podcasts
Additional credit: Elon Musk talking to Bloomberg News in 2011.
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Sarah Wu [00:00:16] Elon Musk laughed at BYD’s electric vehicle when he was asked about it in an interview 13 years ago.
Interviewer [00:00:22] Tell me why you’re laughing. You don’t see them at all as a competitor.
Elon Musk [00:00:27] No.
Interviewer [00:00:27] Why is that? I mean, they offer a lower price point.
Elon Musk [00:00:30] I don’t think they have a great product.
Sarah Wu [00:00:33] But BYD got the last laugh. In the final quarter of 2023, the Chinese car maker sold more EVs than Tesla, making it the world’s largest manufacturer. These days, Chinese EVs are on the streets everywhere, from London to Lima. But with recognition comes greater scrutiny. At home, a price war rages on and few EV makers turn a profit. That’s led policymakers to tackle the problem with more urgency in recent months. Meanwhile, governments abroad are putting up roadblocks to Chinese EVs. I am Sarah Wu, the Economist China correspondent, and I’m joined by Simon Wright, our industry editor. This week, we’ll be discussing the rise and rise of Chinese EV’s and asking, what could put the brakes on their global success? This is Drum Tower. The Economist. Hi Simon! It’s nice to see you! Welcome to Drum Tower!
Simon Wright [00:01:44] It’s great to be here. Thank you.
Sarah Wu [00:01:45] I’m really excited to have you on the show today because I remember when I first started covering China’s car industry, I had read your special report and it taught me so much about the car industry globally.
Simon Wright [00:01:58] I think only one section of the report was about the Chinese car industry. If I wrote it now, I think almost the whole report would be about the Chinese car industries, such as the pace of change.
Sarah Wu [00:02:08] I feel like maybe then you should be writing your next special report on the Chinese car industry.
Simon Wright [00:02:14] I’m waiting to be asked.
Sarah Wu [00:02:15] Consider this asking. So given that you’ve been covering cars for The Economist for so long, I know that you’re no stranger to an auto show. And every year, Shanghai or Beijing holds a massive one. How did you find the one this year in Shanghai?
Simon Wright [00:02:32] I mean, massive is the right word. It was on a scale I’ve never really seen before, and that includes the Frankfurt Motor Show, which used to be the sort of sine qua non of giant motor shows. The real difference, I think, is that Chinese motor shows are still exciting, vibrant places, whereas motor shows in the West are pretty much in decline. It could almost be a metaphor for the discussion we’re about to have.
Sarah Wu [00:02:55] Yeah, certainly.
Simon Wright [00:02:56] So Sarah, I know you’ve been reporting on the EV industry in China, and you’re based in Beijing. I’m curious to know what does the car ownership look like in Beijing these days, is everyone driving an EV?
Sarah Wu [00:03:09] Not quite everyone, but a lot of people, and you can see them on the roads because the EV license plates are green. People often tell me that Beijing streets are quieter these days because there are a lot more EVs, and Beijing is in the north of China. There are even more EV’s in the south because people have less range anxiety there. It’s warmer. A lot of the ride-hailing drivers drive BYDs. Wealthier Chinese might pick a NIO, a Xiaopeng, or a Li Auto car.
Simon Wright [00:03:38] Is it mainly Chinese EV brands that you see, or are the Western carmakers making any inroads with their EVs as far as you can tell?
Sarah Wu [00:03:46] I think the majority are Chinese EVs here. I think in the past, Chinese, especially the older generation, saw BBA as kind of the best cars, and that’s Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi. And I think that still carries today, but I think younger Chinese have less brand loyalty. They’re more open to homegrown brands. They see these cars more as tech, and they want the newest innovations. So I think there has been this generational shift.
Simon Wright [00:04:17] I mean, not only that, there’s been an enormous shift in the industry as a whole. It’s amazing how quickly the Chinese industry has sprung up. Even 10 years ago, people sort of laughed at Chinese car brands. They were sort of appallingly made cars, terribly styled and no one would really want one. They’ve undergone this enormous shift in a very short space of time.
Sarah Wu [00:04:36] Yeah, one of the people I spoke to for some of my reporting is Yale Zhang, who’s an analyst in Shanghai, and he’s been covering the car industry since 1999. So he’s witnessed a lot of these changes.
YALE ZHANG [00:04:50] In fact, China’s 20 years, 25 or 26 years of development has almost condensed the development of the United States or Europe for nearly 100 years. China’s one year of change is really equivalent to Western countries, maybe five years.
Sarah Wu [00:05:08] So here, Yale is describing how China’s development over the past 25, 26 years has essentially compressed what took nearly a century in America or Europe. He says that the pace of change here is staggering. One year in China equals almost five years in Western countries. And he’s seen the market explode from just 500,000 passenger vehicles when he first started covering the industry. To surpassing 20 million in two decades, making it the world’s largest auto market.
Simon Wright [00:05:43] China’s not only the largest market, it’s the largest maker of cars and I think it’s even now the largest exporter of cars. It’s extraordinary what’s happened and none of this would have been possible without government policy. The Chinese government pretty much laid a bet some years ago that the future of the industry was going to be EVs and provided the support and policies that have pushed that.
Sarah Wu [00:06:04] Yeah and I think it’s worth returning to the 90s in China. That was about a decade after China started opening up and it wanted to build its own car industry and it let in foreign automakers under this JV, joint venture, format.
Simon Wright [00:06:21] And the reason that the Chinese government insisted Chinese car firms, who were mostly state-owned at the time, went into joint ventures with foreign ones was so that they could learn from those foreign companies. But in reality the joint venturers held the Chinese car industry back. They were incredibly profitable and the managers of the Chinese cars firms basically sat on their hands, reaped the profits from the joint venture and didn’t really do much to develop their own industry.
Sarah Wu [00:06:44] Yeah. And China then saw if it couldn’t really compete with these legacy automakers, then it had this idea of leapfrogging. So in Chinese, they talk about 換到超車, which means to overtake by switching lanes. And for them, that was switching to the electric lane. And they made it pretty early. In 2001, they wrote EVs into their five-year plan. But it wasn’t until the late 2000s when a former Audi engineer, Wan Gang, became China’s science and tech minister. Then they began to roll out subsidies and make a bigger push.
Simon Wright [00:07:23] And we shouldn’t underestimate the fact that this was a bit of a risk, a bit of a gamble by the Chinese government. There was no obvious sign at that moment that EVs would become as dominant as they have done.
Sarah Wu [00:07:33] Yeah, I mean, a lot of people in the industry back then, I don’t, I don’t think they would have imagined this. I remember the Chery CEO speaking at parliament last year, and he was recalling how when his company, it’s a major automaker, um, when it was founded in 1997, the Chinese industry was dominated by foreign firms and Chinese people thought that building their own cars was a pipe dream. But coming back to what the government was doing... In 2009, there were attempts to kickstart sales by launching electric public transport in cities. And in 2013, EV subsidies were expanded to ordinary people. There were both national and local subsidies for purchasing EVs.
Simon Wright [00:08:21] And I don’t think we should underestimate the importance of the subsidies, both for production of cars and for sales of cars. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that between 2009 and 2023, China spent 231 billion developing its EV industry, and that could very well be an underestimate.
Sarah Wu [00:08:40] Yeah, which is a huge amount. And local governments played an important role here. They provided land and built factories.
Simon Wright [00:08:47] And this is one of the problems for the Chinese car industry in that, well, I mean, the estimates of how many brands out there vary, but it’s at least a hundred. When you go to the Shanghai Motor Show, as I did, I saw all these brands that I’d never heard of before. We’ll probably never hear of again. And they’re brands I didn’t see in Beijing the year before. And I probably won’t see it in Beijing. The year after, there’s just an enormous hinterland. Of Chinese carmakers that they’re so uninterested in exporting, for example, they don’t even render their names in a western script.
Sarah Wu [00:09:18] I hadn’t thought to see which ones have English names, but I think you put your finger on the crux of the problem. This reluctance to let the weaker players die, it distorts the market and I think that’s one of the biggest problems in the car industry right now.
Simon Wright [00:09:34] We shouldn’t really underestimate Tesla’s role in all of this. Whatever you might think of Elon Musk, he’s kickstarted EV production in the West, but also provided inspiration for Chinese EV makers. And in terms of local governments, the Shanghai government played a huge role in this by allowing Tesla to open their Gigafactory in Shanghai.
Sarah Wu [00:09:54] Yeah, exactly Simon. I think it’s really important to bring up Tesla because Shanghai’s Tesla Gigafactory was seen as this model of success and it encouraged a lot of other local governments to attract EV makers. They wanted to build their own EV brands so Tesla had this catfish effect on existing brands. The idea that you throw in a catfish and it makes other fish swim faster. So China allowed Tesla to come in. And it made the existing Chinese brands work harder and design better and it strengthened the supply chain. And the importance of China’s EV supply chains also came up in my conversation with Yale.
Sarah Wu [00:10:55] So, Yale is talking about how in a few hundred kilometers around Shanghai, you can get almost every EV-related part you need to assemble a car.
Simon Wright [00:11:05] And in a sense, the protectionists of the Chinese government also played a big role here. In 2015, they had a policy of whitelisting favored Chinese battery companies, so suppliers like CATL and BYD grew while foreign competitors like LG and Samsung were pushed out. The other way that China has come to dominate the supply chain, not only in China, but probably around the world as well, was an early decision to corner the market in the critical minerals required for the car industry. Lithium that goes into the batteries, cobalt and nickel, and also the rare earth metals that are required to make electric motors. The Chinese government went around the world signing deals in a variety of countries, in Africa in particular, to get their hands on these way before the western car makers or western mining companies realized how important they would be, and in a way they sort of cornered the market, particularly for rare earths.
Sarah Wu [00:12:00] Yeah, I think China’s advantage in rare earths really hit home for me when I was in Ganzhou in Jiangxi, which is a huge producer of rare earth’s and where a lot of the rare earth magnets are made. And I was walking along this very quiet peaceful street where the headquarters of one of the biggest rare earth magnet makers is located. And remember seeing the dealership for BYD and other Chinese EV makers on. The same street, and it made me think about how the Chinese EV makers will have guaranteed access to these components that they need at a time when Western automakers are in full panic mode.
Simon Wright [00:12:40] There’s no doubt that the rare earth and minerals are incredibly important. But the other thing is, it’s the way Chinese carmakers operate. In particular, the sort of start-ups we’ve seen you mentioned NIO, Li, earlier, the new Chinese car makers created a completely different pace to the foreign car makers that they’re competing against. And that’s not just because the Chinese work incredibly hard, which we know that. It’s also just because the attitude in Chinese carmakers is just completely different.
Sarah Wu [00:13:08] Yeah, I think they approach their processes completely differently. For instance, a Western automaker might insist on doing step A, then B, then C, but a Chinese one may run all of those steps at once to save time. So I think that kind of efficiency, then there is the Chinese work culture, often working longer days, more days in a week, and the fact that Chinese firms are more nimble in decision-making. Executives in the field speak about how... They can make decisions much faster than a legacy automaker that has to run through a lot of bureaucratic steps.
Simon Wright [00:13:42] A lot of this is about the expectations of people who are buying cars in China, the consumers themselves. They’re driving this, aren’t they? In that they demand seamless connectivity with their digital lifestyles and they demand new exciting models much more than would be required of Western carmakers, for example. The average age of a new car buyer in China is 35, whereas in Europe, for example, it’s something like 55. But that’s not the only reason, surely.
Sarah Wu [00:14:09] Yeah, I think they’re not only younger, but I think Chinese consumers are more impatient. They want newer models sooner. But there’s more to it. And Yale had some interesting thoughts on that.
Sarah Wu [00:14:43] So Yale is talking about how Chinese consumers’ incomes aren’t that high. They lack the historical brand loyalty seen in more mature markets, and that leads to extremely fierce competition. It means that every decision has to be made quickly. If a company hesitates, it risks being overtaken by rivals or forgotten by consumers.
Simon Wright [00:15:07] One of the ways that car companies stay ahead of the competition is by providing great tech and great entertainment software. And that’s a really important aspect of the car industry as a whole. I mean, the theory, and it’s coming from China, is that it is gonna be the experience of driving a car defined by the software that provides the tech and the entertainment that will be the sort of differentiator in the future. And I think this is absolutely clear in China. One of the reasons I’m told that they demand great entertainment systems in their cars is that a lot of people will get home and spend half an hour in their car watching a film or listening to music just because the entertainment system in their car is so much better than it is in their home.
Sarah Wu [00:15:50] Yeah, I can see why Chinese people get hooked on these new features. My cousins love speaking to Neo’s Nomi. It’s named after nuomi, sticky rice, and it works really well. A lot of the voice assistants in Chinese cars are incredible. You can list out 10 things you wanted to do and it will do those in succession.
Simon Wright [00:16:11] You’re absolutely right that voice commands is one of the big things in China that is much less sort of adopted in the rest of the world. But I mean, I think we should look at China and see what’s coming. And I think that brings us on to what we’re going to talk about next, which is the Chinese car companies that are hoping to emulate BYD, which is the biggest Chinese car company in exporting their cars abroad.
Sarah Wu [00:16:40] So Simon, Jiehao, our producer who works way too hard, was recently on vacation but still sent me this voice note. In it, she talks about how Chinese EVs are taking over the streets in Armenia.
Jiehao Chen [00:16:54] Hey Sarah, this is Jiehao and one of the things that I did not expect in coming to Armenia for traveling is how often I see Chinese EVs on the streets. There’s Hongqi, there’s BYD, there is Zeekr. Just now I was picked up and dropped off by BYD Song Plus. I was so curious so I got to talking with my driver Hayek and he thinks that they’re and just much better value for money, especially compared with brands like Tesla and that though it’s only been here since 2023, they’ve really established themselves and Chinese EVs take up a big chunk of the EVs that are imported and bought in this country.
Simon Wright [00:17:41] Well, that’s a really interesting voice note, not least because I hadn’t really considered Armenia as a top holiday destination up until now.
Sarah Wu [00:17:48] Me and the other.
Simon Wright [00:17:49] But as we talked about, Chinese EV makers have won in their home market. And the next stage for the Chinese government is to establish them as global car makers. And the way to do that is through exports. And in a very short space of time, China has become the world’s biggest exporter of cars. Not only EVs, also internal combustion engine models for other parts of the world that aren’t quite EV ready, but that sets them up to. Export EVs at a later date. And the reason Chinese EVs are so popular in places like Armenia is because they’re well-made cars, they’re cheap, and they have great tech.
Sarah Wu [00:18:27] Yeah, but the likes of Hayek in America would not be able to buy a Chinese EV because with 100% tariffs on them, it’s an effective ban. So instead, the biggest market that they’re eyeing is Europe.
Simon Wright [00:18:41] You’re absolutely right. And that 100% tariff was actually introduced by Joe Biden, not even Donald Trump. So, you know, Chinese EVs are effectively shut out of America for the time being. Which means that Europe, which is the world’s biggest and probably the most competitive car market, is now the sort of battleground for Chinese EV’s where they’ve come to sort of prove themselves. One of the ways you can see how they’re doing this is to walk through Mayfair, which has a very swanky part of London. And you’ll see showrooms for the likes of Rolls Royce, Ferrari, Lamborghini, and then you come up on a showroom for China’s BYD.
Sarah Wu [00:19:17] I love that image of Rolls Royce, Ferrari, and then BYD.
Simon Wright [00:19:21] Yes, especially as Chinese EVs have only been available in Europe for a short period of time. The first to go on sale in Europe was an Aiways in 2019 which was priced at about 40,000 euros.
Sarah Wu [00:19:30] 40,000 euros sounds like so much now, given how cheap the Chinese EVs are. What is the most popular brand now?
Simon Wright [00:19:38] Well, that’s a good question. I mean, if you want a really expensive EV, I mentioned Rolls-Royce earlier, they do the Specter, a car I’ve been lucky enough to drive, which I think costs something like 350,000 pounds.
Sarah Wu [00:19:48] Ouch.
Simon Wright [00:19:50] But if you can’t afford that, in the UK, MG seems to be the most popular brand, which is made by SAOC, a Chinese state-owned company. But we’re seeing plenty of others, the Ora, who renamed their Funky Cat, because I think it was rapidly realized that Westerners wouldn’t buy a car called a Funky Cat. But there are, you know, there are all kinds of different Chinese EVs started to show up in the British market. And when I go traveling in Europe, it’s the same thing.
Sarah Wu [00:20:18] What’s driving European consumers to buy a Chinese EV?
Simon Wright [00:20:22] I think affordability is the key thing. In the mass market, which is where the Chinese are aiming, brand loyalty is much lower than it is if you’re a buyer from a Mercedes or a BMW or a Porsche or something like that. You know, you tend to stick with the brand, you know. In the mass-market, people are much more inclined to buy with their wallets and the Chinese EVs, as I mentioned before, have low-cost, well-made cars, nice styling, and plenty tech. And so what’s not to like?
Sarah Wu [00:20:51] I think there’s a lot not to like for the governments. A lot of European governments fearing this flood of cheap Chinese EVs into their markets meant that Europe conducted this anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EV’s and slapped them with higher tariffs. This was the biggest thorn in China-EU relations last year. I think this year I’m sensing that it’s become quieter on that front. Car makers have shown that they can digest the additional tariffs and the governments are more concerned about the rarest export controls right now.
Simon Wright [00:21:29] I think that’s absolutely right, Sarah. The European governments are incredibly protective of their car industries just in the same way that Chinese local governments want to have a car industry to sort of show their industrial prowess. The European countries that still have car industries feel exactly the same and they fear a flood of cheap Chinese imports will harm the European industries because the Europeans can’t produce EVs as cheaply as the Chinese can at the moment for all the reasons we talked about, not least because of the control of the supply chain and batteries. European carmakers are trying to keep up with the Chinese. Certainly in China, they’re tying up with Chinese carmakers. Volkswagen and Xiaoping is a great example where they’re trying to use Xiaoping’s software to improve their models there. And in Europe. Stellantis has tied up with Leap Motor, a Chinese startup, to produce small, cheap EVs. So I’d say it’s game on in Europe. BYD already started building a factory, which it plans to open, I think, this year or next. In Hungary, it has plans for another one on Turkey, on the fringes of Europe, with a free trade area. Other Chinese car makers are also looking at bringing production to Europe.
Sarah Wu [00:22:39] Do you think we’ll start seeing Chinese automakers in the likes of France and Germany?
Simon Wright [00:22:45] Well, I think that’s not impossible. I think as the European carmakers necessarily have to shrink their production footprints, there’ll be empty factories that the Chinese may very well think would be ideal places to start up production of their own. So I wouldn’t rule that out at all, no.
Sarah Wu [00:23:03] And I can imagine that being somewhat of a win-win scenario if you already had an empty factory, Chinese company comes in, creates jobs, builds cheaper EVs.
Simon Wright [00:23:12] Well, it’s a double-edged sword, isn’t it? On the one hand, it provides jobs and brings in investment. On the other hand, its yet more competition for the incumbent carmakers in Europe.
Sarah Wu [00:23:23] And on that note about competition, let’s change gears and head back to China, where there is no shortage of competition. It’s a really cutthroat market. So, Simon, picking up from where we left off, I think it’s fair to say that the shine on China’s EV success story is starting to come off. Foreign governments are really worried about China exporting over capacity. And the Chinese government in recent months has begun talking a lot about involution, which means unproductive competition in this industry, and they’re wanting to tackle it with increasing urgency. Even the top leader, Xi Jinping, recently asked AI, computing power, and new energy vehicles do all of the provinces in this country have to develop industries in these directions. That kind of blunt statement was the latest in a string of official criticism about too many local governments piling in and not letting these weaker players die. The central government is also stepping up efforts to try to help lessen some of the pain points in this industry. They’re suffering throughout the supply chain right now, so they want suppliers to be paid on time. They also want to encourage consolidation.
Simon Wright [00:24:43] You’re absolutely right about competition in China. Overcapacity is not unusual in the car industry. There’s usually a little bit of it. But in China, it’s enormous. I mean, by some estimates, the production capacity is double what the current sort of production actually is. And that’s incredibly inefficient. Add to that a price war that is crushing profitability. And it’s a very, very hard time for Chinese carmakers. You mentioned consolidation. As long as I’ve been covering the Chinese car industry, I’ve been hearing talk about the government encouraging consolidation, but I think that’s going to be incredibly hard to do. I don’t think we’d see consolidation. I think what we need to see is car companies just going out of business. And as long as local governments are prepared to put their hands in their pockets and keep these small companies making identikit SUVs going, we’re just not going to see that. So I don’t see any way out of this bind at the moment.
Sarah Wu [00:25:37] Yeah, I think it’s a really hard place to be in because this industry is both one of China’s biggest success stories, but it’s also the source of so much pain for so many companies across the supply chain. And these price wars really take a toll. It’s not just in the auto industry, it’s across the board in China and given the slowing economy right now and weaker domestic demand, combined with this price war in last year’s third quarter. Nearly a quarter of China’s listed firms were in the red. That’s more than double the proportion five years ago. And so if companies aren’t able to turn a profit, that puts jobs at risk, that could also mean those employees make less, and none of this helps the government’s goals right now to boost domestic demand.
Simon Wright [00:26:26] Yeah, I agree.
Sarah Wu [00:26:27] So Yale, the analyst I spoke to, thinks one problem is how these Chinese EV companies are run.
Sarah Wu [00:26:52] So Yale is talking about how most of these EV startups mimic Tesla’s early stage strategy. So Tesla lost money relentlessly for a decade. It took 11 years to turn profitable. It was betting on this distant payoff. And similarly, these Chinese companies hope to replicate that strategy, burn through cash to drive out competitors until only a handful remain. But this strategy appears far less viable in auto manufacturing. These EV startups are reaching this really difficult period and many could fold by next year.
Simon Wright [00:27:27] Yes, I think a shakeout of the industry is inevitable. One firm that won’t fail, but has been watched by the Chinese government for good reason is BYD, even though it’s huge and successful. Even it is burdened at the moment, apparently, by huge inventories, production slowdowns and suppliers are complaining about harsh payment terms, which are already very tough to start with because BYD can turn the screws.
Sarah Wu [00:27:49] Yeah. And BYD’s latest price cuts in May sparked the strongest reaction from the Chinese government and state media that I’ve seen to date. Xinhua said that there are no winners in this price war, let alone a future. The industry ministry vowed to curb cutthroat competition. People’s Daily warned that low-priced, low-quality products could harm the Made in China reputation. BYD shares fell. And it felt like the industry might be at a crossroads. So Simon, we’ve been talking about the rise of Chinese EVs, their hopes to send more cars to Europe, and some of the roadblocks they’re facing, both at home and abroad. If you had to make some predictions for the future of Chinese evs around the world, what would they be?
Simon Wright [00:28:46] Yeah, well, look, European car firms are worried and rightly so, but tariffs have definitely slowed the progress of China and Europe and that gives them some breathing space. They are coming out with new and better EVs themselves, so I think they’ll be more competitive with these incoming Chinese models, in part because they’ve learned from Chinese firms about the value of software and the need for speed. More interestingly, perhaps, is the U.S. Perhaps if a Chinese carmaker wanted to buy an unused factory there and start production, that would be a very interesting test of Chinese-U.S. relations.
Sarah Wu [00:29:21] Yeah, I mean, like you, I’m curious to see if a Chinese firm will ever make it to the US. Given that both sides of the aisle were quite concerned when CATL, a battery maker, wanted to license technology, so not even making a car. I can’t see it happening anytime soon, but under Trump, anything could happen.
Simon Wright [00:29:41] China is also making big businesses in other countries around the world, in South America, which is traditionally as strong for European car makers, in Africa, in the Middle East. So it’s looking at the globe as a whole. Undoubtedly there’ll be a shakeout of the Chinese industry, but the strong will survive. And I think like the Japanese and the Koreans before them, the Chinese have undoubtedly become a significant force in the global car industry.
Sarah Wu [00:30:04] I think how this pans out is going to have huge implications for China’s industrial policy too. Though governments are not good at picking winners, I think the case of EVs has shown that throwing a lot of money at an industry can give rise to some superstars. But as China develops new industries such as the low-altitude economy or AI, we can already see some signs of the state wanting to prevent the same excess capacity from playing out again. Simon, thank you so much for joining us on Drum Tower today.
Simon Wright [00:30:38] Sarah, thank you ever so much for having me.
Sarah Wu [00:30:41] Thank you for listening to Drum Tower and special thanks to Alex who listens to us while he’s cycling and making dinner and Mitch who listens from San Francisco. We love hearing from listeners and reading your emails. Please keep sending us more at drum@economist.com.
If you’re listening to this, that means you’re a subscriber. So you get access to all our podcasts. The latest episode of Money Talks, our finance and economics show. Looks at the impact of Trump’s tariffs on Southeast Asia. I found it a really interesting listen. Alicia Burrell, Lucy Rohr, and Jiehao Chen produced this episode. The editor is Rosie Gillott. The executive producer is Chris Impey. Sound design is by Amelia Tsai. And Drum Tower’s music was composed by Jocelyn Tan.